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Comprehensive report on April 24, 2025, the US plans to reduce tariffs on China from 145% to 50%-65% in phases, introducing tiered taxation. This move is due to the triple pressure of the US facing domestic economic backlash, supply chain reconstruction difficulties, and international alliance centrifugal forces. China responded that "both fighting and talking are ready", the market is positive in the short term but there are long-term concerns. The essence of the tariff war is a collision of the strength of major powers.
Comprehensive report on April 24, 2025, the US plans to reduce tariffs on China from 145% to 50%-65% in phases, introducing tiered
taxation. This move is due to the triple pressure of the US facing domestic economic backlash, supply chain reconstruction difficulties,
and international alliance centrifugal forces. China responded that "both fighting and talking are ready", the market is positive in the
short term but there are long-term concerns. The essence of the tariff war is a collision of the strength of major powers.
Major adjustment of the US tariff policy on China: it is planned to be reduced to 50%-65% in stages, game logic and impact analysis
(Comprehensive report on April 24, 2025)
1. The core of policy adjustment: from "comprehensive pressure" to "tiered game"
According to reports from the Wall Street Journal and other US media, the Trump administration is considering reducing tariffs on China
from the current 145% to the range of 50%-65% in stages, and may introduce a "tiered taxation" mechanism:
Non-strategic goods: such as daily necessities, some mechanical parts, etc., tariffs may be reduced to 35%, aiming to ease domestic
inflation pressure in the United States (the current inflation rate is 2.89%
Strategic goods: key industries such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, and photovoltaic components, tariffs remain above 100%,
trying to curb China's technological competitiveness.
The Japanese palace said that the plan will be implemented gradually over five years, but emphasized that "the final decision lies
with the president." This move is seen by the outside world as the United States turning to a mixed strategy of "precise
containment + economic decompression" after the failure of "extreme pressure."
2. Motivational Perspective: The triple pressure that the US "cannot bear"
1. Domestic economic backlash
High tariffs have caused American families to spend an additional $3,800 per year, and the income loss of low-income groups has
reached 4%;U.S. Treasury yields have soared to 4.5%, and the return of manufacturing has been hindered (such as Tesla was forced to apply for
export licenses to China due to a shortage of rare earth magnets);
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that the US tariff policy may reduce global economic growth to 2.8% in 2025
2. Supply chain reconstruction dilemma
In the first quarter of 2025, China's exports to the United States fell to 1.81%, but key areas such as power batteries and solar energy
still accounted for more than 70% of the global share,
The US electronics, automobile and other industries have serious inventory backlogs, and retailers such as Costc0 and Walmart
have called for tax cuts to transmit consumption dividends.
3. International allies are centrifugal
The European Union and Japan have explicitly refused to follow the "decoupling" from China, and South Africa and other countries
have criticized the US for "using tariffs as a tool for blackmail"
11 states in the US Congress jointly sued the government for "abusing tariff policies and violating laws", and Republican lawmakers
secretly pushed the Supreme Court to intervene
3. China's response: A clear position of "being ready for both fighting and talking"
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun made it clear on the 24th:
Negotiation prerequisite: The US side needs to stop threatening and blackmailing, and dialogue on the basis of equality, respect and
reciprocity;
Fact clarification: China and the US have not conducted any formal consultations on tariffs, and "the negotiation news released by the US
side is false" [^ provided by users];
Countermeasure toolbox: In addition to reciprocal tariff increases, China has launched non-tariff measures such as rare earth export
controls and antitrust investigations, and the supply chains of companies such as Tesla are directly affected
4. Market volatility and industry differentiation
1. Short-term positive
After the news was announced, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 5.68% in a single day, and the share prices of Apple and Tesla
rebounded by more than 3%;
US small and medium-sized importers expect to reduce their annual costs by $300,000 to $500,000 [^ provided by users].
2. Long-term concerns
Tiered taxation may exacerbate the fragmentation of the global supply chain: "Strategic commodities" such as semiconductors and
AI face higher barriers
Traditional industries are under pressure: China's steel imports fell 11.3% year-on-year, but power battery exports grew against the
trend (still with a cost advantage under a tariff of 132.4%)
5. Historical mirror and future deduction
Lessons and warnings: The 1930 Smoot-Hawley Act caused global trade to shrink by 66%. If the same mistake is repeated,
it may accelerate the "de-Americanization" of the supply chain
Game variables:
The impact of the results of the US midterm elections on policy consistency;
China's market diversification progress under the framework of RCEP (export growth to ASEAN is 11.55%),
The speed of independent breakthroughs in the "bottleneck" field of science and technology (such as semiconductors).
The essence of the tariff war is a collision field of great power strength
The US concession from "145%" to "50%-65%" is actually a tactical retreat after the hegemonic logic was frustrated.
For China, this is not only a short-term stress test, but also an opportunity to force industrial upgrading. As the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
said, "If you want to fight, we will fight to the end; if you want to talk, the door is open." Under the path of building a new "dual circulation"
pattern, China is reshaping the discourse power of global economic and trade rules with a combination of rare earth control and
technological breakthroughs. If the United States continues to indulge in the "numbers game", it will eventually lose more allies and
market trust in the dilemma of "hurting the enemy 800 and hurting itself 1,000."
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